Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Dallas highs in the low-to-mid 90s°F on March 21, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peaks of 92-95°F amid a potent upper-level ridge amplifying southerly winds and warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico. This setup shatters the mid-March climatological average of 68°F, with historical precedents like 1987's 90°F mark underscoring feasibility. Tight odds between 92-93°F (26%) and 94-95°F (24.5%) reflect model spread of just 1-3°F, influenced by subtle differences in boundary layer mixing, afternoon cloudiness, and urban heat island effects in Dallas-Fort Worth. NWS updates through midday could sharpen resolution criteria.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Dallas on March 21?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 21?
94-95°F 28%
92-93°F 21%
96-97°F 18%
90-91°F 14%
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
5%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
12%
88-89°F
13%
90-91°F
21%
92-93°F
27%
94-95°F
27%
96-97°F
18%
98°F or higher
13%
94-95°F 28%
92-93°F 21%
96-97°F 18%
90-91°F 14%
79°F or below
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
5%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
12%
88-89°F
13%
90-91°F
21%
92-93°F
27%
94-95°F
27%
96-97°F
18%
98°F or higher
13%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Dallas highs in the low-to-mid 90s°F on March 21, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting peaks of 92-95°F amid a potent upper-level ridge amplifying southerly winds and warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico. This setup shatters the mid-March climatological average of 68°F, with historical precedents like 1987's 90°F mark underscoring feasibility. Tight odds between 92-93°F (26%) and 94-95°F (24.5%) reflect model spread of just 1-3°F, influenced by subtle differences in boundary layer mixing, afternoon cloudiness, and urban heat island effects in Dallas-Fort Worth. NWS updates through midday could sharpen resolution criteria.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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