Trader sentiment for Milan's highest temperature on March 21 hinges on divergent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, with ECMWF clusters centering around 13-14°C amid cooler continental air influence, while GFS runs imply potential for 15-16°C under a strengthening high-pressure ridge drawing mild Atlantic flows. Current market odds reflect this split, pricing 16°C+ at 31% versus 14°C at 28%, as traders weigh the latest 12Z ECMWF deterministic peak of 14.5°C against historical March averages of 13.2°C from ARPA Lombardia records. Upper-level jet stream undulations add uncertainty, with tomorrow's 00Z model updates poised to catalyze shifts; climatological baselines favor the mid-teens given recent Po Valley mildness.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Milão no dia 21 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Milão no dia 21 de março?
16°C ou mais 32%
14°C 28%
15°C 19%
13°C 17%
6°C ou menos
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
4%
12°C
7%
13°C
23%
14°C
28%
15°C
19%
16°C ou mais
32%
16°C ou mais 32%
14°C 28%
15°C 19%
13°C 17%
6°C ou menos
1%
7°C
2%
8°C
<1%
9°C
2%
10°C
2%
11°C
4%
12°C
7%
13°C
23%
14°C
28%
15°C
19%
16°C ou mais
32%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 17, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Milan's highest temperature on March 21 hinges on divergent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models, with ECMWF clusters centering around 13-14°C amid cooler continental air influence, while GFS runs imply potential for 15-16°C under a strengthening high-pressure ridge drawing mild Atlantic flows. Current market odds reflect this split, pricing 16°C+ at 31% versus 14°C at 28%, as traders weigh the latest 12Z ECMWF deterministic peak of 14.5°C against historical March averages of 13.2°C from ARPA Lombardia records. Upper-level jet stream undulations add uncertainty, with tomorrow's 00Z model updates poised to catalyze shifts; climatological baselines favor the mid-teens given recent Po Valley mildness.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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