Trader consensus heavily favors a maximum temperature of 30°C or below in Lucknow on March 22 (90.5% implied probability), driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting daytime highs around 28-29°C under clear skies and light northerly winds. This aligns with Lucknow's March climatology—historical averages hover at 30-31°C maximum—with current GFS and ECMWF ensemble models showing low variance and no heatwave signals amid lingering post-winter cooling. Recent upper-air analyses confirm stable subsidence inhibiting convective heating. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt surge in hot westerly winds or model bust, but such deviations occur in under 10% of similar setups per verification data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 22?
30°C or below 91%
31°C 5%
32°C 1.7%
33°C <1%
$39,191 Vol.
$39,191 Vol.
30°C or below
91%
31°C
5%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
30°C or below 91%
31°C 5%
32°C 1.7%
33°C <1%
$39,191 Vol.
$39,191 Vol.
30°C or below
91%
31°C
5%
32°C
2%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a maximum temperature of 30°C or below in Lucknow on March 22 (90.5% implied probability), driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting daytime highs around 28-29°C under clear skies and light northerly winds. This aligns with Lucknow's March climatology—historical averages hover at 30-31°C maximum—with current GFS and ECMWF ensemble models showing low variance and no heatwave signals amid lingering post-winter cooling. Recent upper-air analyses confirm stable subsidence inhibiting convective heating. A realistic challenge would require an abrupt surge in hot westerly winds or model bust, but such deviations occur in under 10% of similar setups per verification data.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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