Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs a maximum temperature of 31°C or below in Lucknow on March 23 (94% implied probability), propelled by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts predicting a daytime high around 30-31°C amid cool northerly winds and partly cloudy skies. Historical March data from IMD stations shows late-month averages near 32°C, but current GFS and ECMWF models align on subdued heat due to a lingering western disturbance suppressing temperatures below seasonal norms. Realistic challenges include an abrupt shift to southeasterly winds or urban heat island amplification pushing peaks to 32-33°C, though low-pressure troughs make extremes unlikely without model divergence by evening updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
31°C or below 96%
32°C 3.3%
33°C 1.1%
34°C <1%
$149,382 Vol.
$149,382 Vol.
31°C or below
96%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
31°C or below 96%
32°C 3.3%
33°C 1.1%
34°C <1%
$149,382 Vol.
$149,382 Vol.
31°C or below
96%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs a maximum temperature of 31°C or below in Lucknow on March 23 (94% implied probability), propelled by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts predicting a daytime high around 30-31°C amid cool northerly winds and partly cloudy skies. Historical March data from IMD stations shows late-month averages near 32°C, but current GFS and ECMWF models align on subdued heat due to a lingering western disturbance suppressing temperatures below seasonal norms. Realistic challenges include an abrupt shift to southeasterly winds or urban heat island amplification pushing peaks to 32-33°C, though low-pressure troughs make extremes unlikely without model divergence by evening updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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