Trader sentiment for Taipei's highest temperature on March 26 reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with implied probabilities clustered around 23-27°C due to variable frontal boundary timing and cloud cover. Leading odds favor 27°C or higher (24.5%) on signals of southerly winds advecting warmer moist air, weakening the East Asian winter monsoon, while 23°C and 24°C (both 22%) draw support from ECMWF and GFS runs showing potential low-level clouds capping highs amid recent cool anomalies. Historical March averages hover at 24°C per long-term Central Weather Administration data, but daily forecast refinements could shift consensus as sea surface temperatures and upper-air patterns evolve.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Taipei on March 26?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 26?
27°C or higher 25%
23°C 22%
24°C 22%
17°C or below 20%
17°C or below
20%
18°C
11%
19°C
12%
20°C
13%
21°C
15%
22°C
16%
23°C
22%
24°C
22%
25°C
18%
26°C
17%
27°C or higher
25%
27°C or higher 25%
23°C 22%
24°C 22%
17°C or below 20%
17°C or below
20%
18°C
11%
19°C
12%
20°C
13%
21°C
15%
22°C
16%
23°C
22%
24°C
22%
25°C
18%
26°C
17%
27°C or higher
25%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Taipei's highest temperature on March 26 reflects tight uncertainty in ensemble weather models, with implied probabilities clustered around 23-27°C due to variable frontal boundary timing and cloud cover. Leading odds favor 27°C or higher (24.5%) on signals of southerly winds advecting warmer moist air, weakening the East Asian winter monsoon, while 23°C and 24°C (both 22%) draw support from ECMWF and GFS runs showing potential low-level clouds capping highs amid recent cool anomalies. Historical March averages hover at 24°C per long-term Central Weather Administration data, but daily forecast refinements could shift consensus as sea surface temperatures and upper-air patterns evolve.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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