Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) pinpoint Ankara's highest temperature on March 26 clustering tightly around 13-14°C, driving the top market-implied probabilities of 21% and 20.5% respectively, amid a narrow model spread reflecting springtime variability. Differentiating factors include a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing mild southerly flow to boost peaks toward 15°C (17% odds), countered by lingering cold air advection from recent northern troughs that could cap readings at 12°C (17%). Historical data shows March 26 averages of 13.2°C with a standard deviation of 2.5°C, amplifying trader caution as diel heating and cloud cover remain pivotal in final hours. Upcoming 12Z model runs could sharpen resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 26?
13°C 21%
14°C 21%
12°C 17%
15°C 17%
8°C or below
11%
9°C
16%
10°C
15%
11°C
15%
12°C
17%
13°C
21%
14°C
21%
15°C
17%
16°C
14%
17°C
11%
18°C or higher
17%
13°C 21%
14°C 21%
12°C 17%
15°C 17%
8°C or below
11%
9°C
16%
10°C
15%
11°C
15%
12°C
17%
13°C
21%
14°C
21%
15°C
17%
16°C
14%
17°C
11%
18°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) pinpoint Ankara's highest temperature on March 26 clustering tightly around 13-14°C, driving the top market-implied probabilities of 21% and 20.5% respectively, amid a narrow model spread reflecting springtime variability. Differentiating factors include a weakening high-pressure ridge allowing mild southerly flow to boost peaks toward 15°C (17% odds), countered by lingering cold air advection from recent northern troughs that could cap readings at 12°C (17%). Historical data shows March 26 averages of 13.2°C with a standard deviation of 2.5°C, amplifying trader caution as diel heating and cloud cover remain pivotal in final hours. Upcoming 12Z model runs could sharpen resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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