The latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center and National Weather Service forecasts drive the 62% implied probability for Chicago's March 22 high of 63°F or below, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF converging on 58-64°F amid a mild ridge of high pressure over the Midwest. Trader sentiment reflects this consensus from the March 20 12Z model runs, showing reduced spread versus earlier outlooks that hinted at 70s potential. Scientifically, a warming trend from southerly flow displaces colder Canadian air, but lingering cloud cover and diurnally limited insolation cap peaks near climatological March norms (average high ~45°F). Upcoming 00Z updates could shift odds if boundary layer mixing intensifies.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 22?
63°F or below 62%
64-65°F 25.8%
66-67°F 8.1%
68-69°F 2.9%
$74,155 Vol.
$74,155 Vol.
63°F or below
62%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
<1%
63°F or below 62%
64-65°F 25.8%
66-67°F 8.1%
68-69°F 2.9%
$74,155 Vol.
$74,155 Vol.
63°F or below
62%
64-65°F
26%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
<1%
80-81°F
1%
82°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center and National Weather Service forecasts drive the 62% implied probability for Chicago's March 22 high of 63°F or below, with ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF converging on 58-64°F amid a mild ridge of high pressure over the Midwest. Trader sentiment reflects this consensus from the March 20 12Z model runs, showing reduced spread versus earlier outlooks that hinted at 70s potential. Scientifically, a warming trend from southerly flow displaces colder Canadian air, but lingering cloud cover and diurnally limited insolation cap peaks near climatological March norms (average high ~45°F). Upcoming 00Z updates could shift odds if boundary layer mixing intensifies.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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