Trader consensus clusters tightly around mid-40s°F for Chicago's highest temperature on March 23, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles averaging 43-45°F amid a lingering upper-level trough ushering cool Canadian air southward. Differentiating the close 44-45°F (26.5%) and 42-43°F (24.0%) leads are subtle model divergences: the European ECMWF leans slightly warmer with partial afternoon clearing boosting insolation, while GFS holds cooler under persistent stratiform clouds and northwest winds off Lake Michigan. Historical March 23 highs at O'Hare average 44°F, but diurnal variability and a 4-6°F ensemble spread underscore resolution risk; watch 12Z model runs for shifts as traders price 46-47°F at 19.7%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chicago em 23 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Chicago em 23 de março?
44-45°F 26%
42-43°F 24%
46-47°F 19.4%
40-41°F 12%
$15,916 Vol.
$15,916 Vol.
35°F ou menos
1%
36-37°F
3%
38-39°F
5%
40-41°F
12%
42-43°F
24%
44-45°F
26%
46-47°F
19%
48-49°F
8%
50-51°F
3%
52-53°F
2%
54°F ou mais
1%
44-45°F 26%
42-43°F 24%
46-47°F 19.4%
40-41°F 12%
$15,916 Vol.
$15,916 Vol.
35°F ou menos
1%
36-37°F
3%
38-39°F
5%
40-41°F
12%
42-43°F
24%
44-45°F
26%
46-47°F
19%
48-49°F
8%
50-51°F
3%
52-53°F
2%
54°F ou mais
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus clusters tightly around mid-40s°F for Chicago's highest temperature on March 23, with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF ensembles averaging 43-45°F amid a lingering upper-level trough ushering cool Canadian air southward. Differentiating the close 44-45°F (26.5%) and 42-43°F (24.0%) leads are subtle model divergences: the European ECMWF leans slightly warmer with partial afternoon clearing boosting insolation, while GFS holds cooler under persistent stratiform clouds and northwest winds off Lake Michigan. Historical March 23 highs at O'Hare average 44°F, but diurnal variability and a 4-6°F ensemble spread underscore resolution risk; watch 12Z model runs for shifts as traders price 46-47°F at 19.7%.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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