The market's leading odds for 56°F or higher (47%) stem from the National Weather Service's latest point forecast for Chicago on March 24, projecting a high near 58°F amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Midwest, fostering adiabatic warming and clear skies. GFS and ECMWF ensemble models converge on above-normal temperatures, with 70-80% of members exceeding 55°F, buoyed by persistent southerly flow advecting mild Gulf moisture post-winter. Recent soundings from O'Hare confirm deepening boundary layers conducive to highs in the mid-50s, while 54-55°F (26.5%) gains traction as a hedge against potential afternoon cloudiness; March climatology averages 46°F, underscoring the warm anomaly amid neutral ENSO influences.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Chicago em 24 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Chicago em 24 de março?
56°F ou mais 35%
54-55°F 30%
52-53°F 28%
50-51°F 9%
37°F ou inferior
1%
38-39°F
3%
40-41°F
5%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
6%
46-47°F
2%
48-49°F
3%
50-51°F
9%
52-53°F
28%
54-55°F
30%
56°F ou mais
41%
56°F ou mais 35%
54-55°F 30%
52-53°F 28%
50-51°F 9%
37°F ou inferior
1%
38-39°F
3%
40-41°F
5%
42-43°F
2%
44-45°F
6%
46-47°F
2%
48-49°F
3%
50-51°F
9%
52-53°F
28%
54-55°F
30%
56°F ou mais
41%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market's leading odds for 56°F or higher (47%) stem from the National Weather Service's latest point forecast for Chicago on March 24, projecting a high near 58°F amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Midwest, fostering adiabatic warming and clear skies. GFS and ECMWF ensemble models converge on above-normal temperatures, with 70-80% of members exceeding 55°F, buoyed by persistent southerly flow advecting mild Gulf moisture post-winter. Recent soundings from O'Hare confirm deepening boundary layers conducive to highs in the mid-50s, while 54-55°F (26.5%) gains traction as a hedge against potential afternoon cloudiness; March climatology averages 46°F, underscoring the warm anomaly amid neutral ENSO influences.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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