Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 3–5°C for Toronto's highest temperature on March 25, driven by Environment Canada's official forecast of a 4°C daytime high amid cloudy skies and possible flurries, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering at 3–5°C. Differentiating factors include model spread from subtle variations in jet stream positioning and Lake Ontario moderation—GEM model leans cooler at 2–3°C due to persistent northerly flow, while warmer GFS outliers at 6°C hinge on brief ridging. Late-March climatology (historical mean ~6°C) adds uncertainty, with snow cover insulating ground temps and cloudiness capping peaks; watch 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Toronto on March 25?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 25?
3°C 26%
4°C 26%
5°C 23%
2°C 20%
0°C or below
5%
1°C
14%
2°C
20%
3°C
26%
4°C
26%
5°C
23%
6°C
19%
7°C
17%
8°C
15%
9°C
12%
10°C or higher
2%
3°C 26%
4°C 26%
5°C 23%
2°C 20%
0°C or below
5%
1°C
14%
2°C
20%
3°C
26%
4°C
26%
5°C
23%
6°C
19%
7°C
17%
8°C
15%
9°C
12%
10°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tightly clusters implied probabilities around 3–5°C for Toronto's highest temperature on March 25, driven by Environment Canada's official forecast of a 4°C daytime high amid cloudy skies and possible flurries, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS ensemble means hovering at 3–5°C. Differentiating factors include model spread from subtle variations in jet stream positioning and Lake Ontario moderation—GEM model leans cooler at 2–3°C due to persistent northerly flow, while warmer GFS outliers at 6°C hinge on brief ridging. Late-March climatology (historical mean ~6°C) adds uncertainty, with snow cover insulating ground temps and cloudiness capping peaks; watch 12Z model updates for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions