Environment Canada's latest ensemble forecasts project Toronto's highest temperature on March 22 to peak around 5–10°C, fueling 73.5% implied probability for 12°C or below as a cold front ushers northerly winds and below-seasonal normals (historical March average high: 6°C). Trader consensus reflects this consensus across models like GEM and ECMWF, with minimal support for warmer outliers like 22°C+ at 24.5% despite occasional spring chinooks. Recent hourly updates show overnight lows near freezing, suppressing diurnal highs, while specific bins (13–21°C) cluster 10–17.5% odds hedging model spread; watch afternoon soundings for final convective potential.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Toronto on March 22?
Highest temperature in Toronto on March 22?
12°C or below 79%
22°C or higher 14%
13°C 13%
15°C 9%
12°C or below
78%
13°C
13%
14°C
18%
15°C
9%
16°C
9%
17°C
9%
18°C
8%
19°C
4%
20°C
3%
21°C
3%
22°C or higher
14%
12°C or below 79%
22°C or higher 14%
13°C 13%
15°C 9%
12°C or below
78%
13°C
13%
14°C
18%
15°C
9%
16°C
9%
17°C
9%
18°C
8%
19°C
4%
20°C
3%
21°C
3%
22°C or higher
14%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ca/mississauga/CYYZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Environment Canada's latest ensemble forecasts project Toronto's highest temperature on March 22 to peak around 5–10°C, fueling 73.5% implied probability for 12°C or below as a cold front ushers northerly winds and below-seasonal normals (historical March average high: 6°C). Trader consensus reflects this consensus across models like GEM and ECMWF, with minimal support for warmer outliers like 22°C+ at 24.5% despite occasional spring chinooks. Recent hourly updates show overnight lows near freezing, suppressing diurnal highs, while specific bins (13–21°C) cluster 10–17.5% odds hedging model spread; watch afternoon soundings for final convective potential.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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