Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward upper 70s to low 80s°F highs for Miami on March 22, driven by NOAA's latest short-range forecast models converging on 78-81°F amid a weak ridge aloft suppressing cold fronts. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows a tight spread, with 78-79°F edging ahead due to anticipated afternoon sea breeze moderating peaks under partly cloudy skies. Differentiating factors include slight model divergences—cooler ECMWF runs factoring enhanced low-level moisture versus warmer GFS outliers with sunnier conditions—and elevated Atlantic sea surface temperatures boosting potential for 82-83°F if winds shift southerly. Historical March 22 averages hover at 79°F, underscoring low outlier risks below 75°F or above 85°F.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Miami on March 22?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 22?
80-81°F 27%
78-79°F 21%
82-83°F 20%
76-77°F 20%
69°F or below
5%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
21%
80-81°F
27%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
6%
88°F or higher
8%
80-81°F 27%
78-79°F 21%
82-83°F 20%
76-77°F 20%
69°F or below
5%
70-71°F
6%
72-73°F
10%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
21%
80-81°F
27%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
18%
86-87°F
6%
88°F or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward upper 70s to low 80s°F highs for Miami on March 22, driven by NOAA's latest short-range forecast models converging on 78-81°F amid a weak ridge aloft suppressing cold fronts. Ensemble guidance from GFS and ECMWF shows a tight spread, with 78-79°F edging ahead due to anticipated afternoon sea breeze moderating peaks under partly cloudy skies. Differentiating factors include slight model divergences—cooler ECMWF runs factoring enhanced low-level moisture versus warmer GFS outliers with sunnier conditions—and elevated Atlantic sea surface temperatures boosting potential for 82-83°F if winds shift southerly. Historical March 22 averages hover at 79°F, underscoring low outlier risks below 75°F or above 85°F.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions