Trader consensus heavily favors 84-85°F (40.5% implied probability) as Atlanta's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF, which converge on peak highs near 85°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico. This unseasonably warm pattern—well above the March climatological average of 66°F—reflects southerly winds and high pressure dominance over the Southeast, with recent 12z model runs nudging probabilities upward for 82-87°F bins while downplaying extremes below 80°F or above 90°F. Short-range hi-res models like HRRR reinforce this, projecting dewpoints in the 60s°F to limit convective interference, positioning mid-80s as the modal outcome barring late cold frontal timing shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Atlanta on March 22?
Highest temperature in Atlanta on March 22?
84-85°F 42%
82-83°F 25%
86-87°F 21%
80-81°F 9%
$29,771 Vol.
$29,771 Vol.
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
25%
84-85°F
42%
86-87°F
21%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
2%
92°F or higher
<1%
84-85°F 42%
82-83°F 25%
86-87°F 21%
80-81°F 9%
$29,771 Vol.
$29,771 Vol.
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
25%
84-85°F
42%
86-87°F
21%
88-89°F
4%
90-91°F
2%
92°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ga/atlanta/KATL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ga/atlanta/KATLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ga/atlanta/KATLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 84-85°F (40.5% implied probability) as Atlanta's highest temperature on March 22, driven by the latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF, which converge on peak highs near 85°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering warm air advection from the Gulf of Mexico. This unseasonably warm pattern—well above the March climatological average of 66°F—reflects southerly winds and high pressure dominance over the Southeast, with recent 12z model runs nudging probabilities upward for 82-87°F bins while downplaying extremes below 80°F or above 90°F. Short-range hi-res models like HRRR reinforce this, projecting dewpoints in the 60s°F to limit convective interference, positioning mid-80s as the modal outcome barring late cold frontal timing shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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