Trader sentiment on Austin's March 25 high temperature clusters tightly around 88-93°F, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast of 91-93°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence warming and clear skies for peak afternoon heating. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show means near 91°F, with spreads of ±3°F reflecting uncertainties in boundary layer mixing and urban heat island amplification in Austin. Recent 12z runs indicate a slight bullish shift toward 92-93°F over cooler 86-89°F outcomes, contrasting March's climatological average of 76°F; below-83°F odds remain low given the anomalous heat dome pattern, though convective threats could cap extremes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on March 25?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 25?
88-89°F 21%
90-91°F 21%
86-87°F 19%
92-93°F 19%
83°F or below
16%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
21%
90-91°F
21%
92-93°F
19%
94-95°F
19%
96-97°F
16%
98-99°F
14%
100-101°F
11%
102°F or higher
2%
88-89°F 21%
90-91°F 21%
86-87°F 19%
92-93°F 19%
83°F or below
16%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
21%
90-91°F
21%
92-93°F
19%
94-95°F
19%
96-97°F
16%
98-99°F
14%
100-101°F
11%
102°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Austin's March 25 high temperature clusters tightly around 88-93°F, driven by the National Weather Service's latest forecast of 91-93°F amid a persistent upper-level ridge fostering subsidence warming and clear skies for peak afternoon heating. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show means near 91°F, with spreads of ±3°F reflecting uncertainties in boundary layer mixing and urban heat island amplification in Austin. Recent 12z runs indicate a slight bullish shift toward 92-93°F over cooler 86-89°F outcomes, contrasting March's climatological average of 76°F; below-83°F odds remain low given the anomalous heat dome pattern, though convective threats could cap extremes.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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