Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 86-91°F for Austin's March 24 high, driven by converging ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models projecting peaks of 88-92°F amid a stubborn high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence and adiabatic warming under clear skies. The National Weather Service's latest outlook pegs a 90°F maximum at Camp Mabry, the official observing site, aligning with dry southerly flows and minimal cloud interference boosting the warmer bins slightly over 84-85°F. Differentiators include minor model divergences—ECMWF leaning hotter via stronger ridging, GFS cooler with evening shear—against Austin's March climatology of volatile spring warmth, where deviations of 3-5°F from averages are common due to Gulf moisture influx variability. Final readings hinge on peak afternoon heating before sunset.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Austin on March 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
88-89°F 35%
86-87°F 29%
90-91°F 29%
84-85°F 28%
79°F or below
2%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
25%
84-85°F
28%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
29%
90-91°F
29%
92-93°F
27%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
17%
98°F or higher
21%
88-89°F 35%
86-87°F 29%
90-91°F 29%
84-85°F 28%
79°F or below
2%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
25%
84-85°F
28%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
29%
90-91°F
29%
92-93°F
27%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
17%
98°F or higher
21%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 86-91°F for Austin's March 24 high, driven by converging ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF models projecting peaks of 88-92°F amid a stubborn high-pressure ridge fostering subsidence and adiabatic warming under clear skies. The National Weather Service's latest outlook pegs a 90°F maximum at Camp Mabry, the official observing site, aligning with dry southerly flows and minimal cloud interference boosting the warmer bins slightly over 84-85°F. Differentiators include minor model divergences—ECMWF leaning hotter via stronger ridging, GFS cooler with evening shear—against Austin's March climatology of volatile spring warmth, where deviations of 3-5°F from averages are common due to Gulf moisture influx variability. Final readings hinge on peak afternoon heating before sunset.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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