Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 33°C high in Singapore on March 22 at 34% implied probability, driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks in the 32-34°C range amid the equatorial island's inter-monsoon transition period, typically featuring low rainfall and intense solar heating. Recent long-range forecasts reflect fading El Niño influences, allowing sea breeze moderation but persistent urban heat island effects that have pushed March averages above 32°C in recent years per NEA data. Key variables include afternoon thunderstorm probability (reducing highs below 32°C), cloud cover variability (favoring 35°C+ outliers at 18%), and baseline climatology of 31.5°C maxima, explaining the broad distribution and high uncertainty as models diverge beyond 10-day horizons.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Singapore on March 22?
Highest temperature in Singapore on March 22?
34°C 32%
33°C 27%
32°C 22%
31°C 6%
25°C or below
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
12%
30°C
16%
31°C
19%
32°C
22%
33°C
34%
34°C
28%
35°C or higher
17%
34°C 32%
33°C 27%
32°C 22%
31°C 6%
25°C or below
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
12%
30°C
16%
31°C
19%
32°C
22%
33°C
34%
34°C
28%
35°C or higher
17%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Singapore Changi Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sg/singapore/WSSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 33°C high in Singapore on March 22 at 34% implied probability, driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS projecting peaks in the 32-34°C range amid the equatorial island's inter-monsoon transition period, typically featuring low rainfall and intense solar heating. Recent long-range forecasts reflect fading El Niño influences, allowing sea breeze moderation but persistent urban heat island effects that have pushed March averages above 32°C in recent years per NEA data. Key variables include afternoon thunderstorm probability (reducing highs below 32°C), cloud cover variability (favoring 35°C+ outliers at 18%), and baseline climatology of 31.5°C maxima, explaining the broad distribution and high uncertainty as models diverge beyond 10-day horizons.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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