Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS ensemble models, project Seoul's March 23 high temperature clustering around 13-14°C, fueling the razor-thin trader consensus with 14°C at 27.5% implied probability edging 13°C at 23.5%. Differentiating factors include diurnal solar heating potential under partly cloudy skies, which could boost peaks to 15°C (16.0%) if southerly winds prevail, versus lingering northerly outflows capping at 13°C amid residual Siberian high influence. Low-level moisture and frontal timing add uncertainty, as historical late-March data shows a 2-3°C spread in similar setups, with traders eyeing tomorrow's updates for shifts above 16°C (12.4%) or cooler baselines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Seul em 23 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Seul em 23 de março?
14°C 30%
13°C 24%
15°C 16%
16°C ou mais 12.5%
$30,026 Vol.
$30,026 Vol.
6°C ou menos
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
10%
13°C
24%
14°C
30%
15°C
16%
16°C ou mais
13%
14°C 30%
13°C 24%
15°C 16%
16°C ou mais 12.5%
$30,026 Vol.
$30,026 Vol.
6°C ou menos
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
2%
11°C
5%
12°C
10%
13°C
24%
14°C
30%
15°C
16%
16°C ou mais
13%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts, corroborated by ECMWF and GFS ensemble models, project Seoul's March 23 high temperature clustering around 13-14°C, fueling the razor-thin trader consensus with 14°C at 27.5% implied probability edging 13°C at 23.5%. Differentiating factors include diurnal solar heating potential under partly cloudy skies, which could boost peaks to 15°C (16.0%) if southerly winds prevail, versus lingering northerly outflows capping at 13°C amid residual Siberian high influence. Low-level moisture and frontal timing add uncertainty, as historical late-March data shows a 2-3°C spread in similar setups, with traders eyeing tomorrow's updates for shifts above 16°C (12.4%) or cooler baselines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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