Trader sentiment peaks at 13°C (30.5% implied probability) for Seoul's highest temperature on March 24, driven by Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts and ECMWF ensembles projecting mild highs of 12-14°C amid a weakening Siberian high and southerly airflow. Historical March averages near 11°C provide baseline context, with recent mild anomalies boosting warmer outcomes like 15°C+ (16%), but model spread reflects uncertainty from potential cold air advection or frontal systems favoring 11°C (11.5%) or cooler. Urban heat island effects amplify peaks, while diurnal cloud cover variability heightens downside risk for sub-10°C tails (13.8% combined), underscoring traders' hedging on short-range updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on March 24?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 24?
13°C 31%
12°C 25%
14°C 19%
15°C or higher 16%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
3%
10°C
7%
11°C
12%
12°C
20%
13°C
31%
14°C
19%
15°C or higher
16%
13°C 31%
12°C 25%
14°C 19%
15°C or higher 16%
5°C or below
1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
3%
10°C
7%
11°C
12%
12°C
20%
13°C
31%
14°C
19%
15°C or higher
16%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment peaks at 13°C (30.5% implied probability) for Seoul's highest temperature on March 24, driven by Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts and ECMWF ensembles projecting mild highs of 12-14°C amid a weakening Siberian high and southerly airflow. Historical March averages near 11°C provide baseline context, with recent mild anomalies boosting warmer outcomes like 15°C+ (16%), but model spread reflects uncertainty from potential cold air advection or frontal systems favoring 11°C (11.5%) or cooler. Urban heat island effects amplify peaks, while diurnal cloud cover variability heightens downside risk for sub-10°C tails (13.8% combined), underscoring traders' hedging on short-range updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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