Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Houston high of 84-85°F (34.5% implied probability), driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting mid-80s peaks under a building subtropical high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly flow. Recent developments include the exit of a cool front earlier this week, boosting adiabatic warming and solar insolation potential after cloudy conditions suppressed prior days. Key variables include cloud cover—clear skies favor 86°F+ bins (17.5-19.5%) via enhanced shortwave radiation, while diurnally driven thunderstorms could drag outcomes to 80-83°F (41% combined). Gulf sea-breeze timing adds uncertainty, potentially capping highs below 82°F (16.5%) through coastal cooling, against March climatological norms near 75°F. Model spread reflects frontal boundary wobbles and soil moisture feedbacks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Houston on March 24?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 24?
84-85°F 32%
82-83°F 25%
80-81°F 17%
92-93°F 15%
75°F or below
3%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
17%
82-83°F
25%
84-85°F
41%
86-87°F
18%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
19%
92-93°F
9%
94°F or higher
3%
84-85°F 32%
82-83°F 25%
80-81°F 17%
92-93°F 15%
75°F or below
3%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
17%
82-83°F
25%
84-85°F
41%
86-87°F
18%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
19%
92-93°F
9%
94°F or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:14 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a Houston high of 84-85°F (34.5% implied probability), driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting mid-80s peaks under a building subtropical high-pressure ridge ushering warm southerly flow. Recent developments include the exit of a cool front earlier this week, boosting adiabatic warming and solar insolation potential after cloudy conditions suppressed prior days. Key variables include cloud cover—clear skies favor 86°F+ bins (17.5-19.5%) via enhanced shortwave radiation, while diurnally driven thunderstorms could drag outcomes to 80-83°F (41% combined). Gulf sea-breeze timing adds uncertainty, potentially capping highs below 82°F (16.5%) through coastal cooling, against March climatological norms near 75°F. Model spread reflects frontal boundary wobbles and soil moisture feedbacks.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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