Trader sentiment clusters around 70-74°F highs for San Francisco on March 24, with 74°F+ edging at 29% amid latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF model runs forecasting 72-76°F under a strengthening high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence inversion and adiabatic warming aloft. This setup favors warmer outcomes over cooler bins like 66-67°F (18.5%), but tight odds reflect uncertainty from persistent coastal marine layer—stratus clouds and cool northerly winds could cap peaks via boundary-layer decoupling, as seen in historical March variability (climatological mean ~62°F). Key differentiator: Thursday's 12Z model updates and SFO observations will sharpen resolution odds before Sunday's measurement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in San Francisco on March 24?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on March 24?
72-73°F 41%
70-71°F 31%
64-65°F 14%
62-63°F 14%
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
4%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
10%
70-71°F
31%
72-73°F
25%
74°F or higher
29%
72-73°F 41%
70-71°F 31%
64-65°F 14%
62-63°F 14%
55°F or below
<1%
56-57°F
1%
58-59°F
2%
60-61°F
4%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
10%
70-71°F
31%
72-73°F
25%
74°F or higher
29%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the San Francisco International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFO.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:08 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/san-francisco/KSFOResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters around 70-74°F highs for San Francisco on March 24, with 74°F+ edging at 29% amid latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF model runs forecasting 72-76°F under a strengthening high-pressure ridge promoting subsidence inversion and adiabatic warming aloft. This setup favors warmer outcomes over cooler bins like 66-67°F (18.5%), but tight odds reflect uncertainty from persistent coastal marine layer—stratus clouds and cool northerly winds could cap peaks via boundary-layer decoupling, as seen in historical March variability (climatological mean ~62°F). Key differentiator: Thursday's 12Z model updates and SFO observations will sharpen resolution odds before Sunday's measurement.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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