Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Tel Aviv high of 19°C at 30.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating mild conditions under a weak high-pressure ridge, with highs clustering around 19-20°C amid light southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Differentiating the tight race among 18°C (23.5%), 19°C, and 20°C (22%) hinges on model spread in boundary layer temperatures: cooler Mediterranean sea breezes could cap peaks at 18°C, while slight diurnal heating or urban effects in Tel Aviv might push to 20°C, per Israel Meteorological Service guidance. Historical late-March averages hover near 20°C, but recent cool air advection tempers upside risk, with final NWS-style observations resolving the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 24?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 24?
18°C 35%
19°C 23%
21°C 17%
20°C 15%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
11%
16°C
14%
17°C
16%
18°C
24%
19°C
31%
20°C
22%
21°C
17%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
10%
18°C 35%
19°C 23%
21°C 17%
20°C 15%
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
11%
16°C
14%
17°C
16%
18°C
24%
19°C
31%
20°C
22%
21°C
17%
22°C
12%
23°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Tel Aviv high of 19°C at 30.5% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts indicating mild conditions under a weak high-pressure ridge, with highs clustering around 19-20°C amid light southerly winds and partial cloud cover. Differentiating the tight race among 18°C (23.5%), 19°C, and 20°C (22%) hinges on model spread in boundary layer temperatures: cooler Mediterranean sea breezes could cap peaks at 18°C, while slight diurnal heating or urban effects in Tel Aviv might push to 20°C, per Israel Meteorological Service guidance. Historical late-March averages hover near 20°C, but recent cool air advection tempers upside risk, with final NWS-style observations resolving the market.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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