Trader consensus on Polymarket sharply favors a highest temperature of 20°C in Tel Aviv on March 23 at 42.5% implied probability, driven by converging forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Israel Meteorological Service models pinpointing 19-21°C peaks. This reflects a cooling mid-level trough over the eastern Mediterranean, tempering earlier warmer outlooks amid March climatology averaging 19.5°C highs with sea-breeze moderation. Recent 00Z ensemble runs reduced support for 22°C-plus outliers (now under 12% combined), while observations from March 22's low-20s readings underscore the frontal shift positioning 20°C, 21°C, and 19°C as dominant outcomes in trader sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 23?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 23?
20°C 42%
21°C 22%
19°C 14%
22°C 8%
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
4%
18°C
8%
19°C
14%
20°C
42%
21°C
22%
22°C
8%
23°C
3%
24°C or higher
3%
20°C 42%
21°C 22%
19°C 14%
22°C 8%
14°C or below
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
4%
18°C
8%
19°C
14%
20°C
42%
21°C
22%
22°C
8%
23°C
3%
24°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket sharply favors a highest temperature of 20°C in Tel Aviv on March 23 at 42.5% implied probability, driven by converging forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and Israel Meteorological Service models pinpointing 19-21°C peaks. This reflects a cooling mid-level trough over the eastern Mediterranean, tempering earlier warmer outlooks amid March climatology averaging 19.5°C highs with sea-breeze moderation. Recent 00Z ensemble runs reduced support for 22°C-plus outliers (now under 12% combined), while observations from March 22's low-20s readings underscore the frontal shift positioning 20°C, 21°C, and 19°C as dominant outcomes in trader sentiment.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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