Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive trader consensus toward 82-85°F highs in Miami on March 24, with 82-83°F edging ahead at 30% implied probability amid subtle model spread. Warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico under a building subtropical ridge favors upper-80s potential, but sea breeze enhancement and possible diurnally driven cumulus could cap peaks at 82-83°F, differentiating from 84-85°F odds. Historical March highs average 79°F, yet this season's above-normal anomalies—tied to lingering El Niño decay and Atlantic sea surface temperatures 1-2°F above average—boost warmth. Key watch: 18Z model runs today for frontal timing shifts, per NWS Miami updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Miami on March 24?
Highest temperature in Miami on March 24?
82-83°F 29%
80-81°F 27%
78-79°F 22%
84-85°F 22%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
16%
80-81°F
27%
82-83°F
29%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
1%
82-83°F 29%
80-81°F 27%
78-79°F 22%
84-85°F 22%
73°F or below
<1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
16%
80-81°F
27%
82-83°F
29%
84-85°F
22%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
1%
92°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models drive trader consensus toward 82-85°F highs in Miami on March 24, with 82-83°F edging ahead at 30% implied probability amid subtle model spread. Warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico under a building subtropical ridge favors upper-80s potential, but sea breeze enhancement and possible diurnally driven cumulus could cap peaks at 82-83°F, differentiating from 84-85°F odds. Historical March highs average 79°F, yet this season's above-normal anomalies—tied to lingering El Niño decay and Atlantic sea surface temperatures 1-2°F above average—boost warmth. Key watch: 18Z model runs today for frontal timing shifts, per NWS Miami updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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