Trader consensus on Milan's highest temperature on March 25 clusters tightly around 16–19°C, driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS projecting mild highs amid a high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Recent developments, including southward winds and above-average solar insolation from reduced cloud cover in ARPA Lombardia updates, favor 18°C at 22.5% implied probability as the peak forecast median, edging out 17°C and 19°C. Historical late-March averages hover near 13–15°C, but 2024's positive temperature anomalies—linked to lingering stratospheric warming—boost warmer outcomes, with model spread reflecting uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects differentiating the top contenders. Key watch: 00Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Milão no dia 25 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Milão no dia 25 de março?
18°C 23%
17°C 21%
19°C 21%
16°C 19%
12°C ou menos
2%
13°C
11%
14°C
14%
15°C
18%
16°C
19%
17°C
21%
18°C
23%
19°C
21%
20°C
16%
21°C
12%
22°C ou mais
6%
18°C 23%
17°C 21%
19°C 21%
16°C 19%
12°C ou menos
2%
13°C
11%
14°C
14%
15°C
18%
16°C
19%
17°C
21%
18°C
23%
19°C
21%
20°C
16%
21°C
12%
22°C ou mais
6%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 21, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Milan's highest temperature on March 25 clusters tightly around 16–19°C, driven by ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS projecting mild highs amid a high-pressure ridge over northern Italy. Recent developments, including southward winds and above-average solar insolation from reduced cloud cover in ARPA Lombardia updates, favor 18°C at 22.5% implied probability as the peak forecast median, edging out 17°C and 19°C. Historical late-March averages hover near 13–15°C, but 2024's positive temperature anomalies—linked to lingering stratospheric warming—boost warmer outcomes, with model spread reflecting uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and urban heat effects differentiating the top contenders. Key watch: 00Z model runs for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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