Trader consensus favors 82-83°F (30%) as Miami's highest temperature on March 23, driven by NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble mean of 82.5°F and ECMWF projections near 83°F, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge over Florida advecting warm Gulf air. Differentiating factors include model spread from sea breeze timing and boundary layer mixing: GFS variants dip to 81°F under stronger onshore flow, while ECMWF hotter outliers hit 85°F with reduced mixing. NWS official forecast aligns at 83°F under partly sunny skies, against March historical average of 79°F; minimal cold front risk keeps sub-80°F odds low at 14%. Traders eye afternoon 12z updates for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Miami em 23 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Miami em 23 de março?
82-83°F 30%
26,6–27,2°C 22%
84-85°F 18%
78-79°F 10%
71°F ou menos
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
10%
26,6–27,2°C
22%
82-83°F
30%
84-85°F
18%
30-31°C
9%
88-89°F
4%
90°F ou mais
1%
82-83°F 30%
26,6–27,2°C 22%
84-85°F 18%
78-79°F 10%
71°F ou menos
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
10%
26,6–27,2°C
22%
82-83°F
30%
84-85°F
18%
30-31°C
9%
88-89°F
4%
90°F ou mais
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 82-83°F (30%) as Miami's highest temperature on March 23, driven by NOAA's Global Forecast System (GFS) ensemble mean of 82.5°F and ECMWF projections near 83°F, reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge over Florida advecting warm Gulf air. Differentiating factors include model spread from sea breeze timing and boundary layer mixing: GFS variants dip to 81°F under stronger onshore flow, while ECMWF hotter outliers hit 85°F with reduced mixing. NWS official forecast aligns at 83°F under partly sunny skies, against March historical average of 79°F; minimal cold front risk keeps sub-80°F odds low at 14%. Traders eye afternoon 12z updates for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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