Trader consensus favors a Denver high of 80-81°F on March 24 at 34.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 78-79°F at 27%, reflecting tight model spread amid dry high-pressure ridging over the Rockies. National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensembles project peak afternoon heating from downslope chinook-like winds and clear skies, boosting temperatures 5-10°F above seasonal norms, with 850mb temperatures around 10-12°C driving the 78-83°F cluster. Differentiation hinges on boundary-layer mixing efficiency and exact cloud cover persistence; minimal low-level moisture favors the warmer side, but any marine-layer spillover from California could cap at 78°F. Historical March 24 records average 56°F, underscoring outlier warmth from current synoptic setup. Monitor hourly updates from NOAA for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Denver on March 24?
Highest temperature in Denver on March 24?
80-81°F 35%
78-79°F 27%
82-83°F 20%
76-77°F 19%
69°F or below
9%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
15%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
35%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
9%
88°F or higher
11%
80-81°F 35%
78-79°F 27%
82-83°F 20%
76-77°F 19%
69°F or below
9%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
15%
74-75°F
8%
76-77°F
19%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
35%
82-83°F
20%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
9%
88°F or higher
11%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Denver International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDEN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:19 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/co/denver/KDENResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a Denver high of 80-81°F on March 24 at 34.5% implied probability, closely trailed by 78-79°F at 27%, reflecting tight model spread amid dry high-pressure ridging over the Rockies. National Weather Service forecasts and GFS/ECMWF ensembles project peak afternoon heating from downslope chinook-like winds and clear skies, boosting temperatures 5-10°F above seasonal norms, with 850mb temperatures around 10-12°C driving the 78-83°F cluster. Differentiation hinges on boundary-layer mixing efficiency and exact cloud cover persistence; minimal low-level moisture favors the warmer side, but any marine-layer spillover from California could cap at 78°F. Historical March 24 records average 56°F, underscoring outlier warmth from current synoptic setup. Monitor hourly updates from NOAA for resolution shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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