Trader sentiment favors cooler outcomes for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on March 24, with 23°C or below leading at 41% implied probability, driven by updated forecasts from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like ECMWF showing a mild autumn high around 23-25°C amid a passing frontal system. Recent observations indicate overnight lows near 18°C and light southerly winds suppressing daytime heating, aligning with seasonal norms where March averages hover at 24°C but recent La Niña influences have cooled regional patterns. Model ensembles diverge slightly—GFS leans warmer at 25-26°C—yet consensus tilts moderate, with minimal risk of extremes per historical data, positioning 24-26°C bins as secondary contenders while underscoring short-term forecast uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 24?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 24?
23°C or below 47%
25°C 24%
24°C 21%
26°C 10%
23°C or below
47%
24°C
21%
25°C
24%
26°C
18%
27°C
7%
28°C
3%
29°C
2%
30°C
2%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
23°C or below 47%
25°C 24%
24°C 21%
26°C 10%
23°C or below
47%
24°C
21%
25°C
24%
26°C
18%
27°C
7%
28°C
3%
29°C
2%
30°C
2%
31°C
1%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors cooler outcomes for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on March 24, with 23°C or below leading at 41% implied probability, driven by updated forecasts from Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) and global models like ECMWF showing a mild autumn high around 23-25°C amid a passing frontal system. Recent observations indicate overnight lows near 18°C and light southerly winds suppressing daytime heating, aligning with seasonal norms where March averages hover at 24°C but recent La Niña influences have cooled regional patterns. Model ensembles diverge slightly—GFS leans warmer at 25-26°C—yet consensus tilts moderate, with minimal risk of extremes per historical data, positioning 24-26°C bins as secondary contenders while underscoring short-term forecast uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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