Trader sentiment for Chicago's highest temperature on March 26 clusters around the low-to-mid 60s°F, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks of 62-65°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering mild southerly flow. The 62-63°F bin leads at 30% implied probability, edging out 64-65°F at 25%, as GFS guidance tilts slightly cooler due to deeper boundary layer mixing, while ECMWF runs favor marginal warmth from better ridging amplitude. Key differentiators include Lake Michigan's moderating lake breeze, potentially capping highs below 66°F, and lingering model spread on timing of any weak cold front; historical March 26 averages sit near 48°F, underscoring the anomalous warmth boosting these odds over cooler outcomes. Watch evening model updates for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 26?
62-63°F 30%
64-65°F 29%
66-67°F 19%
68-69°F 18%
59°F or below
18%
60-61°F
12%
62-63°F
30%
64-65°F
25%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
18%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
7%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
6%
78°F or higher
1%
62-63°F 30%
64-65°F 29%
66-67°F 19%
68-69°F 18%
59°F or below
18%
60-61°F
12%
62-63°F
30%
64-65°F
25%
66-67°F
19%
68-69°F
18%
70-71°F
8%
72-73°F
7%
74-75°F
6%
76-77°F
6%
78°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Chicago's highest temperature on March 26 clusters around the low-to-mid 60s°F, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks of 62-65°F amid a strengthening upper-level ridge ushering mild southerly flow. The 62-63°F bin leads at 30% implied probability, edging out 64-65°F at 25%, as GFS guidance tilts slightly cooler due to deeper boundary layer mixing, while ECMWF runs favor marginal warmth from better ridging amplitude. Key differentiators include Lake Michigan's moderating lake breeze, potentially capping highs below 66°F, and lingering model spread on timing of any weak cold front; historical March 26 averages sit near 48°F, underscoring the anomalous warmth boosting these odds over cooler outcomes. Watch evening model updates for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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