Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 54-61°F for New York City's highest temperature on March 26, driven primarily by the latest National Weather Service forecast and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF, which project highs of 57-60°F amid a mild southerly flow pattern. Differentiating the leading bins—60-61°F (26.5%) versus 54-59°F (75% combined)—are subtle model divergences: ECMWF shows deeper boundary layer mixing for potential 60°F peaks, while GFS tempers with afternoon clouds, aligning closer to 56-58°F. Historical March 26 averages hover at 52°F, but current jet stream ridging supports above-normal warmth; watch 12Z model updates for resolution-shifting clarity on convective timing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in NYC on March 26?
Highest temperature in NYC on March 26?
60-61°F 27%
54-55°F 25%
56-57°F 25%
58-59°F 25%
47°F or below
12%
48-49°F
12%
50-51°F
12%
52-53°F
14%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
25%
58-59°F
25%
60-61°F
27%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
12%
66°F or higher
12%
60-61°F 27%
54-55°F 25%
56-57°F 25%
58-59°F 25%
47°F or below
12%
48-49°F
12%
50-51°F
12%
52-53°F
14%
54-55°F
25%
56-57°F
25%
58-59°F
25%
60-61°F
27%
62-63°F
12%
64-65°F
12%
66°F or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 54-61°F for New York City's highest temperature on March 26, driven primarily by the latest National Weather Service forecast and ensemble model guidance from GFS and ECMWF, which project highs of 57-60°F amid a mild southerly flow pattern. Differentiating the leading bins—60-61°F (26.5%) versus 54-59°F (75% combined)—are subtle model divergences: ECMWF shows deeper boundary layer mixing for potential 60°F peaks, while GFS tempers with afternoon clouds, aligning closer to 56-58°F. Historical March 26 averages hover at 52°F, but current jet stream ridging supports above-normal warmth; watch 12Z model updates for resolution-shifting clarity on convective timing.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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