Trader sentiment on Shanghai's highest temperature March 26 clusters tightly around 16–19°C, reflecting forecast model divergence amid mild spring conditions. Leading ensembles from ECMWF and GFS project daytime highs of 17–18°C, driven by southerly winds advecting warmer air from the East China Sea, where sea surface temperatures hover 2–3°C above seasonal norms. Historical data shows March 26 averages 14–16°C, but urban heat island effects in Shanghai boost readings by 1–2°C. Recent CMA updates indicate low cloud cover and frontal passage risks tempering peaks, differentiating 16°C (cooler model outliers) from 18–19°C (warmer consensus), with slim odds for extremes due to stable jet stream positioning. Monitor 00Z model runs for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on March 26?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on March 26?
16°C 28%
18°C 27%
17°C 22%
19°C 20%
12°C or below
1%
13°C
15%
14°C
16%
15°C
18%
16°C
28%
17°C
22%
18°C
27%
19°C
20%
20°C
13%
21°C
11%
22°C or higher
2%
16°C 28%
18°C 27%
17°C 22%
19°C 20%
12°C or below
1%
13°C
15%
14°C
16%
15°C
18%
16°C
28%
17°C
22%
18°C
27%
19°C
20%
20°C
13%
21°C
11%
22°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:18 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Shanghai's highest temperature March 26 clusters tightly around 16–19°C, reflecting forecast model divergence amid mild spring conditions. Leading ensembles from ECMWF and GFS project daytime highs of 17–18°C, driven by southerly winds advecting warmer air from the East China Sea, where sea surface temperatures hover 2–3°C above seasonal norms. Historical data shows March 26 averages 14–16°C, but urban heat island effects in Shanghai boost readings by 1–2°C. Recent CMA updates indicate low cloud cover and frontal passage risks tempering peaks, differentiating 16°C (cooler model outliers) from 18–19°C (warmer consensus), with slim odds for extremes due to stable jet stream positioning. Monitor 00Z model runs for shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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