Recent Met Office forecasts point to a mild but variable day in London on March 22, with model consensus favoring a daytime high near 13°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, driving the market's 57.5% implied probability for that outcome. Ensemble predictions from the UKMO and ECMWF show tight clustering around 12-14°C, reflecting atypical spring warmth from a high-pressure ridge over the North Atlantic displacing colder air masses. Historical data for late March averages 11-12°C at Heathrow, but recent observations—such as 14°C peaks earlier this week—bolster optimism for the upper end, while overnight lows near 6°C cap extremes. Traders await hourly updates, as small shifts in cloud cover or sea breezes could pivot odds between 12°C (20.9%) and 14°C (17.5%).
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Londres em 22 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Londres em 22 de março?
13°C 57%
12°C 20.9%
14°C 18%
15°C 3.3%
$87,674 Vol.
$87,674 Vol.
7°C ou menos
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
2%
12°C
21%
13°C
57%
14°C
18%
15°C
3%
16°C
<1%
17°C ou mais
<1%
13°C 57%
12°C 20.9%
14°C 18%
15°C 3.3%
$87,674 Vol.
$87,674 Vol.
7°C ou menos
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
2%
12°C
21%
13°C
57%
14°C
18%
15°C
3%
16°C
<1%
17°C ou mais
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Met Office forecasts point to a mild but variable day in London on March 22, with model consensus favoring a daytime high near 13°C under partly cloudy skies and light southerly winds, driving the market's 57.5% implied probability for that outcome. Ensemble predictions from the UKMO and ECMWF show tight clustering around 12-14°C, reflecting atypical spring warmth from a high-pressure ridge over the North Atlantic displacing colder air masses. Historical data for late March averages 11-12°C at Heathrow, but recent observations—such as 14°C peaks earlier this week—bolster optimism for the upper end, while overnight lows near 6°C cap extremes. Traders await hourly updates, as small shifts in cloud cover or sea breezes could pivot odds between 12°C (20.9%) and 14°C (17.5%).
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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