Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 15°C (37.5%) and 14°C (30%) for London's Heathrow maximum temperature on March 23, driven by the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts implying peaks of 14-16°C under a developing high-pressure ridge over southern England. This setup favors mild southerly airflow and reduced cloud cover compared to recent wetter patterns, lifting highs above the 12°C March climatological average. Differentiating factors include model spread from transient low cloud or northerly gusts, with historical verification showing ±1-2°C errors typical at 3-5 day leads; 16°C (16%) gains if sunnier outcomes prevail per GFS trends, while cooler bets hedge cloud persistence. Upcoming 12Z model runs will sharpen implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Londres no dia 23 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Londres no dia 23 de março?
15°C 37%
14°C 30%
16°C 15.7%
13°C 8%
$34,659 Vol.
$34,659 Vol.
9°C ou menos
1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
8%
14°C
30%
15°C
37%
16°C
16%
17°C
3%
18°C
1%
19°C ou mais
<1%
15°C 37%
14°C 30%
16°C 15.7%
13°C 8%
$34,659 Vol.
$34,659 Vol.
9°C ou menos
1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
2%
13°C
8%
14°C
30%
15°C
37%
16°C
16%
17°C
3%
18°C
1%
19°C ou mais
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 15°C (37.5%) and 14°C (30%) for London's Heathrow maximum temperature on March 23, driven by the latest Met Office and ECMWF ensemble forecasts implying peaks of 14-16°C under a developing high-pressure ridge over southern England. This setup favors mild southerly airflow and reduced cloud cover compared to recent wetter patterns, lifting highs above the 12°C March climatological average. Differentiating factors include model spread from transient low cloud or northerly gusts, with historical verification showing ±1-2°C errors typical at 3-5 day leads; 16°C (16%) gains if sunnier outcomes prevail per GFS trends, while cooler bets hedge cloud persistence. Upcoming 12Z model runs will sharpen implied probabilities.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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