Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and CMA models converge on a daily high near 18°C in Wuhan on March 26, fueling tight trader consensus with 17°C and 18°C each at 24.5% implied probability. Recent runs show a downward revision from prior 20°C+ guidance due to strengthening northerly winds aloft, capping convective heating and favoring radiative cooling overnight—key factors trimming odds for 19-20°C (40% combined) versus cooler 16-17°C (39%). Historical March 26 highs average 17.2°C (1991-2023 normals), but urban heat island effects add 1-2°C variability; traders eye 12Z updates for frontal timing that could swing outcomes by 1°C.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Wuhan on March 26?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on March 26?
18°C 25%
19°C 21%
17°C 17%
20°C 16%
$12,433 Vol.
$12,433 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
1%
15°C
8%
16°C
15%
17°C
25%
18°C
25%
19°C
22%
20°C
16%
21°C or higher
7%
18°C 25%
19°C 21%
17°C 17%
20°C 16%
$12,433 Vol.
$12,433 Vol.
11°C or below
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
1%
15°C
8%
16°C
15%
17°C
25%
18°C
25%
19°C
22%
20°C
16%
21°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:15 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF, GFS, and CMA models converge on a daily high near 18°C in Wuhan on March 26, fueling tight trader consensus with 17°C and 18°C each at 24.5% implied probability. Recent runs show a downward revision from prior 20°C+ guidance due to strengthening northerly winds aloft, capping convective heating and favoring radiative cooling overnight—key factors trimming odds for 19-20°C (40% combined) versus cooler 16-17°C (39%). Historical March 26 highs average 17.2°C (1991-2023 normals), but urban heat island effects add 1-2°C variability; traders eye 12Z updates for frontal timing that could swing outcomes by 1°C.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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