Latest ensemble weather models from global forecasting centers like ECMWF and GFS point to Wuhan's highest temperature on March 24 clustering around 16-18°C, driving the tight trader odds favoring those outcomes at 21-22%. This reflects southerly winds advecting mild air masses northward amid a weakening high-pressure ridge, with historical March averages of 13-15°C providing a cooler baseline but recent days hitting 19-20°C amid low cloud cover. Differentiating factors include model divergence on afternoon cloud development—ECMWF drier for potential 18°C peaks, while GFS hints at showers capping at 16°C—and urban heat island amplification in Wuhan boosting maxima by 1-2°C. Traders eye hourly updates from China Meteorological Administration stations for resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Wuhan em 24 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Wuhan em 24 de março?
17°C 22%
16°C 21%
18°C 21%
19°C ou mais 19%
9°C ou menos
9%
10°C
10%
11°C
13%
12°C
4%
13°C
18%
14°C
16%
15°C
17%
16°C
21%
17°C
22%
18°C
21%
19°C ou mais
19%
17°C 22%
16°C 21%
18°C 21%
19°C ou mais 19%
9°C ou menos
9%
10°C
10%
11°C
13%
12°C
4%
13°C
18%
14°C
16%
15°C
17%
16°C
21%
17°C
22%
18°C
21%
19°C ou mais
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:05 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble weather models from global forecasting centers like ECMWF and GFS point to Wuhan's highest temperature on March 24 clustering around 16-18°C, driving the tight trader odds favoring those outcomes at 21-22%. This reflects southerly winds advecting mild air masses northward amid a weakening high-pressure ridge, with historical March averages of 13-15°C providing a cooler baseline but recent days hitting 19-20°C amid low cloud cover. Differentiating factors include model divergence on afternoon cloud development—ECMWF drier for potential 18°C peaks, while GFS hints at showers capping at 16°C—and urban heat island amplification in Wuhan boosting maxima by 1-2°C. Traders eye hourly updates from China Meteorological Administration stations for resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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