Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 18°C (28.5%) and 19°C (28.0%) for Chongqing's highest temperature on March 24, driven by converging global weather models like ECMWF and GFS forecasting a peak of 18-19°C under mild southerly advection and weak high-pressure influence over the Sichuan Basin. This edges out 17°C (19.0%) as recent cold air outbreaks from the north have cooled early-spring baselines, historically averaging 17.5°C on this date, while 20°C+ (11.5%) faces headwinds from anticipated mid-level clouds reducing insolation. Differentiating factors include model spread on boundary layer mixing and diurnal heating rates, with partial clearing favoring the upper end; traders eye China's Meteorological Administration's 12-hour update for resolution cues amid low volatility in geopotential height patterns.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chongqing on March 24?
Highest temperature in Chongqing on March 24?
17°C 34%
18°C 34%
19°C 30%
20°C or higher 13%
10°C or below
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
2%
16°C
8%
17°C
20%
18°C
29%
19°C
30%
20°C or higher
13%
17°C 34%
18°C 34%
19°C 30%
20°C or higher 13%
10°C or below
1%
11°C
1%
12°C
1%
13°C
1%
14°C
3%
15°C
2%
16°C
8%
17°C
20%
18°C
29%
19°C
30%
20°C or higher
13%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 18°C (28.5%) and 19°C (28.0%) for Chongqing's highest temperature on March 24, driven by converging global weather models like ECMWF and GFS forecasting a peak of 18-19°C under mild southerly advection and weak high-pressure influence over the Sichuan Basin. This edges out 17°C (19.0%) as recent cold air outbreaks from the north have cooled early-spring baselines, historically averaging 17.5°C on this date, while 20°C+ (11.5%) faces headwinds from anticipated mid-level clouds reducing insolation. Differentiating factors include model spread on boundary layer mixing and diurnal heating rates, with partial clearing favoring the upper end; traders eye China's Meteorological Administration's 12-hour update for resolution cues amid low volatility in geopotential height patterns.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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