Trader sentiment for Los Angeles' highest temperature on March 26 tilts toward 74-77°F bins at over 60% combined implied probability, propelled by recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks around 75-76°F amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Southwest. This synoptic pattern curbs onshore flow, thinning the persistent marine stratus layer and enhancing solar insolation for above-normal warmth—historical averages at LAX sit near 71°F. Differentiation hinges on model spread: ECMWF leans slightly cooler with prolonged low-cloud decks capping at 74-75°F via stronger temperature inversions, while GFS variants show faster clearing for 76-77°F. NOAA's official outlook aligns at 75°F; monitor 00Z runs for shifts in trader consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Los Angeles on March 26?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 26?
74-75°F 22%
70-71°F 18%
76-77°F 13%
78-79°F 10.8%
67°F or below
1%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
19%
74-75°F
24%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
1%
86°F or higher
2%
74-75°F 22%
70-71°F 18%
76-77°F 13%
78-79°F 10.8%
67°F or below
1%
68-69°F
3%
70-71°F
18%
72-73°F
19%
74-75°F
24%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
11%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
1%
86°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 22, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Los Angeles' highest temperature on March 26 tilts toward 74-77°F bins at over 60% combined implied probability, propelled by recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting peaks around 75-76°F amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the Southwest. This synoptic pattern curbs onshore flow, thinning the persistent marine stratus layer and enhancing solar insolation for above-normal warmth—historical averages at LAX sit near 71°F. Differentiation hinges on model spread: ECMWF leans slightly cooler with prolonged low-cloud decks capping at 74-75°F via stronger temperature inversions, while GFS variants show faster clearing for 76-77°F. NOAA's official outlook aligns at 75°F; monitor 00Z runs for shifts in trader consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions