Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 72-75°F (43% combined implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for Los Angeles projecting a high near 73°F on March 27, aligned with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF model ensembles from the 00Z runs showing peak afternoon temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s. Persistent onshore flow at 5-10 mph carries cool marine air from the Pacific, fostering a stubborn morning marine layer that delays burn-off and caps daytime heating, though partial clearing by midday could push toward 75°F if winds lighten. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS slightly warmer at 75°F versus ECMWF's 72°F—and cloud persistence amid a weakening upper-level ridge over the Southwest; historical March averages hover near 70°F, underscoring climatological mildness. NWS 12Z update expected to refine guidance amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Los Angeles on March 27?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 27?
72-73°F 25%
74-75°F 21%
71°F or below 18%
76-77°F 11%
71°F or below
18%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
21%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
2%
90°F or higher
1%
72-73°F 25%
74-75°F 21%
71°F or below 18%
76-77°F 11%
71°F or below
18%
72-73°F
25%
74-75°F
21%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
10%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
4%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
2%
90°F or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:24 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket clusters around 72-75°F (43% combined implied probability), driven by the latest National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for Los Angeles projecting a high near 73°F on March 27, aligned with NOAA's GFS and ECMWF model ensembles from the 00Z runs showing peak afternoon temperatures in the low-to-mid 70s. Persistent onshore flow at 5-10 mph carries cool marine air from the Pacific, fostering a stubborn morning marine layer that delays burn-off and caps daytime heating, though partial clearing by midday could push toward 75°F if winds lighten. Differentiating factors include model spread—GFS slightly warmer at 75°F versus ECMWF's 72°F—and cloud persistence amid a weakening upper-level ridge over the Southwest; historical March averages hover near 70°F, underscoring climatological mildness. NWS 12Z update expected to refine guidance amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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