Trader consensus on Polymarket shows a tight race for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on March 29, with 31°C leading at 25% implied probability, closely trailed by 29°C (22.5%), 30°C (21.5%), and 28°C (20%), reflecting forecast model ensembles clustering in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius. Recent GFS and ECMWF updates indicate a strengthening subtropical ridge over eastern Argentina promoting sunny conditions and peak heating potential up to 31°C, but coastal sea breeze incursions and variable cloud cover introduce uncertainty that differentiates outcomes, potentially capping maxima at 28-29°C per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance. Climatological late-March norms average 24-27°C, yet this setup exceeds baselines; watch 24-48 hour model refreshes for refined guidance on convective activity or wind shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 29?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 29?
31°C 23%
29°C 23%
30°C 22%
28°C 16%
23°C or below
2%
24°C
4%
25°C
4%
26°C
4%
27°C
7%
28°C
16%
29°C
23%
30°C
22%
31°C
25%
32°C
8%
33°C or higher
8%
31°C 23%
29°C 23%
30°C 22%
28°C 16%
23°C or below
2%
24°C
4%
25°C
4%
26°C
4%
27°C
7%
28°C
16%
29°C
23%
30°C
22%
31°C
25%
32°C
8%
33°C or higher
8%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket shows a tight race for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on March 29, with 31°C leading at 25% implied probability, closely trailed by 29°C (22.5%), 30°C (21.5%), and 28°C (20%), reflecting forecast model ensembles clustering in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius. Recent GFS and ECMWF updates indicate a strengthening subtropical ridge over eastern Argentina promoting sunny conditions and peak heating potential up to 31°C, but coastal sea breeze incursions and variable cloud cover introduce uncertainty that differentiates outcomes, potentially capping maxima at 28-29°C per Servicio Meteorológico Nacional guidance. Climatological late-March norms average 24-27°C, yet this setup exceeds baselines; watch 24-48 hour model refreshes for refined guidance on convective activity or wind shifts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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