Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 26°C (24.5%) and 27°C (24.0%) for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on March 27, driven primarily by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on daytime highs of 25-28°C amid a stable subtropical ridge suppressing cooler air intrusions. Short-range model runs show minimal spread—differentiating leaders via subtle urban heat island amplification in the city core versus coastal sea breeze moderation—against March historical averages of 25-27°C. Recent SMN Argentina updates confirm mostly sunny conditions with light winds, lowering odds for extremes below 24°C (18.5%) or above 29°C (<17%), though diurnal timing of peak heat adds residual uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 27?
Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on March 27?
26°C 25%
27°C 24%
25°C 20%
24°C 19%
23°C or below
12%
24°C
19%
25°C
20%
26°C
25%
27°C
24%
28°C
10%
29°C
9%
30°C
15%
31°C
12%
32°C
11%
33°C or higher
2%
26°C 25%
27°C 24%
25°C 20%
24°C 19%
23°C or below
12%
24°C
19%
25°C
20%
26°C
25%
27°C
24%
28°C
10%
29°C
9%
30°C
15%
31°C
12%
32°C
11%
33°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight clustering around 26°C (24.5%) and 27°C (24.0%) for Buenos Aires' highest temperature on March 27, driven primarily by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on daytime highs of 25-28°C amid a stable subtropical ridge suppressing cooler air intrusions. Short-range model runs show minimal spread—differentiating leaders via subtle urban heat island amplification in the city core versus coastal sea breeze moderation—against March historical averages of 25-27°C. Recent SMN Argentina updates confirm mostly sunny conditions with light winds, lowering odds for extremes below 24°C (18.5%) or above 29°C (<17%), though diurnal timing of peak heat adds residual uncertainty.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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