Trader consensus on Polymarket shows a razor-thin split between 86°F or higher (20.5% implied probability) and 82-83°F (19.0%) for Dallas's March 27 high temperature, propelled by NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 82-85°F amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the southern Plains. This setup promises above-normal warmth—surpassing the 72°F late-March climatological average—via adiabatic compression, low soil moisture amplifying heat, and southerly winds delivering mild Gulf air under mostly clear skies. Model spreads reflect uncertainty from potential cumulus clouds capping peaks at 82°F in cooler outliers, versus 88°F in hotter runs; the midday 12Z update could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Dallas on March 27?
Highest temperature in Dallas on March 27?
82-83°F 19%
76-77°F 16%
78-79°F 14%
80-81°F 14%
67°F or below
2%
68-69°F
4%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
13%
86°F or higher
12%
82-83°F 19%
76-77°F 16%
78-79°F 14%
80-81°F 14%
67°F or below
2%
68-69°F
4%
70-71°F
3%
72-73°F
6%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
16%
78-79°F
14%
80-81°F
14%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
13%
86°F or higher
12%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket shows a razor-thin split between 86°F or higher (20.5% implied probability) and 82-83°F (19.0%) for Dallas's March 27 high temperature, propelled by NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 82-85°F amid a strengthening high-pressure ridge over the southern Plains. This setup promises above-normal warmth—surpassing the 72°F late-March climatological average—via adiabatic compression, low soil moisture amplifying heat, and southerly winds delivering mild Gulf air under mostly clear skies. Model spreads reflect uncertainty from potential cumulus clouds capping peaks at 82°F in cooler outliers, versus 88°F in hotter runs; the midday 12Z update could sharpen odds as resolution nears.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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