Traders overwhelmingly back the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome at 94.2% implied probability, reflecting preliminary observational data from NOAA and Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis confirming April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly fell squarely in this range above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline. This positioning stems from sustained elevated sea surface temperatures—ranking as the second-warmest April on record—despite a transition to neutral ENSO conditions following El Niño, with contributions from reduced aerosol cooling and persistent atmospheric patterns. Historical analogs from recent record-hot Aprils (e.g., 2024 at ~1.32ºC) support this moderation, as 2026's first four months trended cooler than 2024 per independent analyses. Final bulletins from NOAA (expected mid-May) or Copernicus could revise slightly via data merging, but significant shifts below 1.15ºC or above 1.19ºC would require anomalous adjustments unlikely given model consensus and measurement stability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAbril de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Abril de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
1,15–1,19ºC 94.3%
1,20–1,24ºC 4.5%
1,10–1,14ºC 1.8%
>1,29ºC <1%
$330,381 Vol.
$330,381 Vol.
10 mai 2026
<1,10ºC
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
2%
1,15–1,19ºC
94%
1,20–1,24ºC
4%
1,25–1,29ºC
<1%
>1,29ºC
1%
1,15–1,19ºC 94.3%
1,20–1,24ºC 4.5%
1,10–1,14ºC 1.8%
>1,29ºC <1%
$330,381 Vol.
$330,381 Vol.
10 mai 2026
<1,10ºC
$54,723 Vol.
<1%
1,10–1,14ºC
$61,134 Vol.
2%
1,15–1,19ºC
$46,716 Vol.
94%
1,20–1,24ºC
$66,529 Vol.
4%
1,25–1,29ºC
$57,056 Vol.
<1%
>1,29ºC
$44,222 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Traders overwhelmingly back the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome at 94.2% implied probability, reflecting preliminary observational data from NOAA and Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis confirming April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly fell squarely in this range above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline. This positioning stems from sustained elevated sea surface temperatures—ranking as the second-warmest April on record—despite a transition to neutral ENSO conditions following El Niño, with contributions from reduced aerosol cooling and persistent atmospheric patterns. Historical analogs from recent record-hot Aprils (e.g., 2024 at ~1.32ºC) support this moderation, as 2026's first four months trended cooler than 2024 per independent analyses. Final bulletins from NOAA (expected mid-May) or Copernicus could revise slightly via data merging, but significant shifts below 1.15ºC or above 1.19ºC would require anomalous adjustments unlikely given model consensus and measurement stability.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$330,381Data de Término
10 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Traders overwhelmingly back the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome at 94.2% implied probability, reflecting preliminary observational data from NOAA and Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis confirming April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly fell squarely in this range above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline. This positioning stems from sustained elevated sea surface temperatures—ranking as the second-warmest April on record—despite a transition to neutral ENSO conditions following El Niño, with contributions from reduced aerosol cooling and persistent atmospheric patterns. Historical analogs from recent record-hot Aprils (e.g., 2024 at ~1.32ºC) support this moderation, as 2026's first four months trended cooler than 2024 per independent analyses. Final bulletins from NOAA (expected mid-May) or Copernicus could revise slightly via data merging, but significant shifts below 1.15ºC or above 1.19ºC would require anomalous adjustments unlikely given model consensus and measurement stability.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$330,381Data de Término
10 mai 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders overwhelmingly back the 1.15–1.19ºC outcome at 94.2% implied probability, reflecting preliminary observational data from NOAA and Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis confirming April 2026's global surface air temperature anomaly fell squarely in this range above the pre-industrial (1850–1900) baseline. This positioning stems from sustained elevated sea surface temperatures—ranking as the second-warmest April on record—despite a transition to neutral ENSO conditions following El Niño, with contributions from reduced aerosol cooling and persistent atmospheric patterns. Historical analogs from recent record-hot Aprils (e.g., 2024 at ~1.32ºC) support this moderation, as 2026's first four months trended cooler than 2024 per independent analyses. Final bulletins from NOAA (expected mid-May) or Copernicus could revise slightly via data merging, but significant shifts below 1.15ºC or above 1.19ºC would require anomalous adjustments unlikely given model consensus and measurement stability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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Cuidado com os links externos.
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