Recent May 2026 data showing the second-warmest month on record, combined with the confirmed onset of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, underpin trader consensus around a 1.15–1.19 °C global surface temperature anomaly for June. El Niño’s strengthening sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to add to the long-term greenhouse-gas-driven baseline, which has kept 2023–2025 among the warmest years observed. Model ensembles and agency outlooks indicate this monthly value aligns with observed trends and the current weak-to-moderate event’s typical imprint, while lower or higher bins reflect uncertainty in exact June realization and rapid model updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoJune 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 71%
1.10–1.14ºC 19%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.2%
$14,426 Vol.
$14,426 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
19%
1.15–1.19ºC
71%
1.20–1.24ºC
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
2%
>1.29ºC
2%
1.15–1.19ºC 71%
1.10–1.14ºC 19%
1.20–1.24ºC 9%
1.25–1.29ºC 2.2%
$14,426 Vol.
$14,426 Vol.
30 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$511 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$6,227 Vol.
19%
1.15–1.19ºC
$481 Vol.
71%
1.20–1.24ºC
$3,845 Vol.
9%
1.25–1.29ºC
$1,749 Vol.
2%
>1.29ºC
$1,613 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent May 2026 data showing the second-warmest month on record, combined with the confirmed onset of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, underpin trader consensus around a 1.15–1.19 °C global surface temperature anomaly for June. El Niño’s strengthening sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to add to the long-term greenhouse-gas-driven baseline, which has kept 2023–2025 among the warmest years observed. Model ensembles and agency outlooks indicate this monthly value aligns with observed trends and the current weak-to-moderate event’s typical imprint, while lower or higher bins reflect uncertainty in exact June realization and rapid model updates.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Volume
$14,426Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent May 2026 data showing the second-warmest month on record, combined with the confirmed onset of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, underpin trader consensus around a 1.15–1.19 °C global surface temperature anomaly for June. El Niño’s strengthening sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to add to the long-term greenhouse-gas-driven baseline, which has kept 2023–2025 among the warmest years observed. Model ensembles and agency outlooks indicate this monthly value aligns with observed trends and the current weak-to-moderate event’s typical imprint, while lower or higher bins reflect uncertainty in exact June realization and rapid model updates.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$14,426Data de Término
30 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent May 2026 data showing the second-warmest month on record, combined with the confirmed onset of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific, underpin trader consensus around a 1.15–1.19 °C global surface temperature anomaly for June. El Niño’s strengthening sea-surface temperature anomalies are expected to add to the long-term greenhouse-gas-driven baseline, which has kept 2023–2025 among the warmest years observed. Model ensembles and agency outlooks indicate this monthly value aligns with observed trends and the current weak-to-moderate event’s typical imprint, while lower or higher bins reflect uncertainty in exact June realization and rapid model updates.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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