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icon for June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

icon for June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

jun 30

jun 30

1.15–1.19ºC 66%

1.10–1.14ºC 21%

1.20–1.24ºC 9%

<1.10ºC 3.8%

Polymarket

$13,376 Vol.

1.15–1.19ºC 66%

1.10–1.14ºC 21%

1.20–1.24ºC 9%

<1.10ºC 3.8%

Polymarket

$13,376 Vol.

<1.10ºC

$505 Vol.

4%

1.10–1.14ºC

$5,765 Vol.

21%

1.15–1.19ºC

$459 Vol.

69%

1.20–1.24ºC

$3,451 Vol.

9%

1.25–1.29ºC

$1,743 Vol.

2%

>1.29ºC

$1,453 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions, officially declared by NOAA in mid-June 2026 with Niño-3.4 anomalies near +0.7°C and strengthening forecasts, represent the dominant near-term driver lifting implied probabilities for the 1.15–1.19°C bin to 68.5%. This developing event overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, sustaining elevated global mean surface temperatures after 2025’s approximately 1.44°C anomaly relative to 1850–1900. Recent May 2026 data showing the second-warmest month on record, combined with model consensus for El Niño intensification through summer, support trader consensus around these levels while acknowledging uncertainty from variable ENSO timing and internal climate variability.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$13,376
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.El Niño conditions, officially declared by NOAA in mid-June 2026 with Niño-3.4 anomalies near +0.7°C and strengthening forecasts, represent the dominant near-term driver lifting implied probabilities for the 1.15–1.19°C bin to 68.5%. This developing event overlays the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, sustaining elevated global mean surface temperatures after 2025’s approximately 1.44°C anomaly relative to 1850–1900. Recent May 2026 data showing the second-warmest month on record, combined with model consensus for El Niño intensification through summer, support trader consensus around these levels while acknowledging uncertainty from variable ENSO timing and internal climate variability.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$13,376
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
May 26, 2026, 7:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for June 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for June 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for June 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jun" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for June 2026 is provided by NASA by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1.15–1.19ºC" at 69%, followed by "1.10–1.14ºC" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" has generated $13.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" is "1.15–1.19ºC" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1.10–1.14ºC" at 21%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "June 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.