The market-implied probability peaks at 54.5% for a 1.10–1.14 °C global temperature anomaly in May 2026 relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, driven primarily by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend superimposed on near-neutral ENSO conditions. Recent observations from NOAA and NASA show May 2025 temperatures already approaching 1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, consistent with the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO₂ and the lagged effects of the 2023–2024 El Niño. Model ensembles from the World Meteorological Organization indicate limited cooling influence from the current ENSO-neutral phase, keeping most projections clustered around 1.10–1.15 °C. Traders are watching the next NOAA global temperature release and updated seasonal forecasts for any late-month shifts that could alter resolution within the 1.10–1.14 °C bin.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 69%
<1.10ºC 27%
1.15–1.19ºC 5%
1.20–1.24ºC 1.9%
$85,340 Vol.
$85,340 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
35%
1.10–1.14ºC
54%
1.15–1.19ºC
5%
1.20–1.24ºC
2%
1.25–1.29ºC
1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 69%
<1.10ºC 27%
1.15–1.19ºC 5%
1.20–1.24ºC 1.9%
$85,340 Vol.
$85,340 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$27,736 Vol.
35%
1.10–1.14ºC
$8,596 Vol.
54%
1.15–1.19ºC
$14,648 Vol.
5%
1.20–1.24ºC
$11,552 Vol.
2%
1.25–1.29ºC
$9,978 Vol.
1%
>1.29ºC
$12,830 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The market-implied probability peaks at 54.5% for a 1.10–1.14 °C global temperature anomaly in May 2026 relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, driven primarily by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend superimposed on near-neutral ENSO conditions. Recent observations from NOAA and NASA show May 2025 temperatures already approaching 1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, consistent with the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO₂ and the lagged effects of the 2023–2024 El Niño. Model ensembles from the World Meteorological Organization indicate limited cooling influence from the current ENSO-neutral phase, keeping most projections clustered around 1.10–1.15 °C. Traders are watching the next NOAA global temperature release and updated seasonal forecasts for any late-month shifts that could alter resolution within the 1.10–1.14 °C bin.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$85,340Data de Término
10 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The market-implied probability peaks at 54.5% for a 1.10–1.14 °C global temperature anomaly in May 2026 relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, driven primarily by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend superimposed on near-neutral ENSO conditions. Recent observations from NOAA and NASA show May 2025 temperatures already approaching 1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, consistent with the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO₂ and the lagged effects of the 2023–2024 El Niño. Model ensembles from the World Meteorological Organization indicate limited cooling influence from the current ENSO-neutral phase, keeping most projections clustered around 1.10–1.15 °C. Traders are watching the next NOAA global temperature release and updated seasonal forecasts for any late-month shifts that could alter resolution within the 1.10–1.14 °C bin.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$85,340Data de Término
10 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The market-implied probability peaks at 54.5% for a 1.10–1.14 °C global temperature anomaly in May 2026 relative to the 1850–1900 baseline, driven primarily by the long-term anthropogenic warming trend superimposed on near-neutral ENSO conditions. Recent observations from NOAA and NASA show May 2025 temperatures already approaching 1.1 °C above pre-industrial levels, consistent with the ongoing rise in atmospheric CO₂ and the lagged effects of the 2023–2024 El Niño. Model ensembles from the World Meteorological Organization indicate limited cooling influence from the current ENSO-neutral phase, keeping most projections clustered around 1.10–1.15 °C. Traders are watching the next NOAA global temperature release and updated seasonal forecasts for any late-month shifts that could alter resolution within the 1.10–1.14 °C bin.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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