The dominant market consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C bin for the May 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly reflects the steady long-term warming trajectory driven by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, reinforced by the most recent observational datasets from NOAA and NASA that place recent monthly anomalies within this narrow window. Natural variability from ENSO phase and regional weather patterns has not produced the larger swings needed to shift the outcome outside the favored range. A rapid transition to strong La Niña conditions or an unforeseen volcanic aerosol injection could introduce short-term cooling sufficient to alter the final monthly average, though such developments remain low-probability based on current monitoring.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 97.2%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,174 Vol.
$192,174 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 97.2%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,174 Vol.
$192,174 Vol.
10 jun 2026
<1.10ºC
$61,006 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,254 Vol.
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
$37,111 Vol.
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$23,001 Vol.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,400 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,403 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The dominant market consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C bin for the May 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly reflects the steady long-term warming trajectory driven by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, reinforced by the most recent observational datasets from NOAA and NASA that place recent monthly anomalies within this narrow window. Natural variability from ENSO phase and regional weather patterns has not produced the larger swings needed to shift the outcome outside the favored range. A rapid transition to strong La Niña conditions or an unforeseen volcanic aerosol injection could introduce short-term cooling sufficient to alter the final monthly average, though such developments remain low-probability based on current monitoring.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$192,174Data de Término
10 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.The dominant market consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C bin for the May 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly reflects the steady long-term warming trajectory driven by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, reinforced by the most recent observational datasets from NOAA and NASA that place recent monthly anomalies within this narrow window. Natural variability from ENSO phase and regional weather patterns has not produced the larger swings needed to shift the outcome outside the favored range. A rapid transition to strong La Niña conditions or an unforeseen volcanic aerosol injection could introduce short-term cooling sufficient to alter the final monthly average, though such developments remain low-probability based on current monitoring.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$192,174Data de Término
10 jun 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant market consensus around the 1.10–1.14°C bin for the May 2026 global mean surface temperature anomaly reflects the steady long-term warming trajectory driven by rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, reinforced by the most recent observational datasets from NOAA and NASA that place recent monthly anomalies within this narrow window. Natural variability from ENSO phase and regional weather patterns has not produced the larger swings needed to shift the outcome outside the favored range. A rapid transition to strong La Niña conditions or an unforeseen volcanic aerosol injection could introduce short-term cooling sufficient to alter the final monthly average, though such developments remain low-probability based on current monitoring.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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