Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 84-87°F for Dallas on March 24, driven by ensemble forecast models from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF showing a strengthening upper-level ridge over the southern Plains, promoting subsidence warming and southwesterly winds advecting heat from Mexico. The razor-thin split between 84-85°F (34.5%) and 86-87°F (33.0%) reflects minor model divergences: GFS ensembles cluster slightly lower amid potential mid-level cloudiness, while ECMWF runs hint at clearer skies pushing toward 87°F, tempered by historical March overperformance biases of 1-2°F in these setups. Key differentiator is afternoon boundary layer mixing efficiency, with NWS point forecasts hovering near 85°F ahead of evening updates. Uncertainty lingers from possible convective debris.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoTemperatura mais alta em Dallas em 24 de março?
Temperatura mais alta em Dallas em 24 de março?
30-31°C 38%
84-85°F 25%
82-83°F 15%
88-89°F 11%
77°F ou menos
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
15%
84-85°F
33%
30-31°C
33%
88-89°F
11%
32-33°C
14%
92-93°F
5%
94-95°F
2%
96°F ou mais
1%
30-31°C 38%
84-85°F 25%
82-83°F 15%
88-89°F 11%
77°F ou menos
1%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
3%
82-83°F
15%
84-85°F
33%
30-31°C
33%
88-89°F
11%
32-33°C
14%
92-93°F
5%
94-95°F
2%
96°F ou mais
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Dallas Love Field Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDAL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/dallas/KDALResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors highs of 84-87°F for Dallas on March 24, driven by ensemble forecast models from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF showing a strengthening upper-level ridge over the southern Plains, promoting subsidence warming and southwesterly winds advecting heat from Mexico. The razor-thin split between 84-85°F (34.5%) and 86-87°F (33.0%) reflects minor model divergences: GFS ensembles cluster slightly lower amid potential mid-level cloudiness, while ECMWF runs hint at clearer skies pushing toward 87°F, tempered by historical March overperformance biases of 1-2°F in these setups. Key differentiator is afternoon boundary layer mixing efficiency, with NWS point forecasts hovering near 85°F ahead of evening updates. Uncertainty lingers from possible convective debris.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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