Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward mid-80s highs for Houston's March 27 peak temperature, with 84-85°F leading at 22.5% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 84-86°F amid a strengthening subtropical ridge over Texas. Southerly winds from the warm Gulf of Mexico—sea surface temperatures near 72°F—are advecting moist, heated air, while low soil moisture from recent dry spells amplifies daytime heating. Differentiating factors include minor model spreads of 2-4°F: operational GFS edges higher toward 86°F with clearer skies, versus cooler ECMWF runs factoring slight afternoon cumulus clouds; historical March norms hover at 75-77°F, underscoring this above-average outlook amid low precipitation odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Houston on March 27?
Highest temperature in Houston on March 27?
84-85°F 23%
86-87°F 19%
82-83°F 19%
88-89°F 18%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
15%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
17%
92-93°F
15%
94°F or higher
2%
84-85°F 23%
86-87°F 19%
82-83°F 19%
88-89°F 18%
75°F or below
2%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
13%
80-81°F
15%
82-83°F
19%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
19%
88-89°F
18%
90-91°F
17%
92-93°F
15%
94°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the William P. Hobby Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 23, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/houston/KHOUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward mid-80s highs for Houston's March 27 peak temperature, with 84-85°F leading at 22.5% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts converging on 84-86°F amid a strengthening subtropical ridge over Texas. Southerly winds from the warm Gulf of Mexico—sea surface temperatures near 72°F—are advecting moist, heated air, while low soil moisture from recent dry spells amplifies daytime heating. Differentiating factors include minor model spreads of 2-4°F: operational GFS edges higher toward 86°F with clearer skies, versus cooler ECMWF runs factoring slight afternoon cumulus clouds; historical March norms hover at 75-77°F, underscoring this above-average outlook amid low precipitation odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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