Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts center Munich's March 23 high temperature around 12.5°C, fueling the dead heat between 12°C (27.5% implied probability) and 13°C (27.5%), as mild Atlantic high-pressure advection battles incoming northern cloudiness. Trader consensus reflects this model spread, with 14°C (19.5%) viable if diurnal heating amplifies under clearer skies, per DWD hourly updates. Historical Munich March averages hover at 11°C, but this year's positive temperature anomaly—driven by reduced Arctic air incursions—elevates the range, though urban heat island effects and late-day convection add uncertainty. Key watch: Afternoon observations from Pazeberg station could tip resolution toward the lower end if winds shift northerly.