Forecast ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Germany's DWD point to a high temperature near 7°C in Munich on March 29, driven by cool northerly airflow, extensive cloud cover, and light showers limiting solar heating, aligning with trader consensus pricing 7°C at 26.5% implied probability amid tight odds for 6–9°C outcomes (18–19.5%). Differentiating factors include boundary layer stability and frontal timing: stronger mixing could push toward 8–9°C, while thicker overcast favors 6°C or below, reflecting model spread in recent 00Z runs that trimmed prior estimates by 1–2°C. Historical March 29 averages hover around 10°C, but this below-normal setup stems from a stalled Atlantic low. DWD's next advisory at 1800 UTC may sharpen hourly profiles.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Munich on March 29?
Highest temperature in Munich on March 29?
7°C 27%
8°C 25%
6°C 19%
9°C 18%
2°C or below
2%
3°C
8%
4°C
12%
5°C
11%
6°C
19%
7°C
27%
8°C
20%
9°C
18%
10°C
10%
11°C
10%
12°C or higher
4%
7°C 27%
8°C 25%
6°C 19%
9°C 18%
2°C or below
2%
3°C
8%
4°C
12%
5°C
11%
6°C
19%
7°C
27%
8°C
20%
9°C
18%
10°C
10%
11°C
10%
12°C or higher
4%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast ensembles from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Germany's DWD point to a high temperature near 7°C in Munich on March 29, driven by cool northerly airflow, extensive cloud cover, and light showers limiting solar heating, aligning with trader consensus pricing 7°C at 26.5% implied probability amid tight odds for 6–9°C outcomes (18–19.5%). Differentiating factors include boundary layer stability and frontal timing: stronger mixing could push toward 8–9°C, while thicker overcast favors 6°C or below, reflecting model spread in recent 00Z runs that trimmed prior estimates by 1–2°C. Historical March 29 averages hover around 10°C, but this below-normal setup stems from a stalled Atlantic low. DWD's next advisory at 1800 UTC may sharpen hourly profiles.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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