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Clima E Ciência·Clima

Quantos terremotos 7.0 ou acima até 30 de junho?

Market icon
Clima E Ciência·Clima

Quantos terremotos 7.0 ou acima até 30 de junho?

8+ 86%

7 10%

6 1.9%

5 <1%

Polymarket

$1,794,171 Vol.

8+ 86%

7 10%

6 1.9%

5 <1%

Polymarket

$1,794,171 Vol.

5

$440,870 Vol.

<1%

6

$112,777 Vol.

2%

7

$274,881 Vol.

10%

8+

$528,091 Vol.

86%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors eight or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, with an 85.5% implied probability, driven by the U.S. Geological Survey's confirmation of four such events already in 2026—including a M7.4 off Ternate, Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Luganville, Vanuatu on March 30. This rapid early-year pace aligns with the historical global average of 15–16 M7+ quakes annually under the Gutenberg-Richter distribution, projecting around eight total by mid-year amid random clustering along active plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire. USGS real-time monitoring will track further activity, though seismic rates remain statistically unpredictable with no causal links between recent events; new data releases could adjust expectations.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,794,171
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors eight or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, with an 85.5% implied probability, driven by the U.S. Geological Survey's confirmation of four such events already in 2026—including a M7.4 off Ternate, Indonesia on April 1 and M7.3 near Luganville, Vanuatu on March 30. This rapid early-year pace aligns with the historical global average of 15–16 M7+ quakes annually under the Gutenberg-Richter distribution, projecting around eight total by mid-year amid random clustering along active plate boundaries like the Pacific Ring of Fire. USGS real-time monitoring will track further activity, though seismic rates remain statistically unpredictable with no causal links between recent events; new data releases could adjust expectations.

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Volume
$1,794,171
Data de Término
30 jun 2026
Mercado Aberto
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Quantos terremotos 7.0 ou acima até 30 de junho?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "8+" at 86%, followed by "7" at 10%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 86¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Quantos terremotos 7.0 ou acima até 30 de junho?" has generated $1.8 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 4, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Quantos terremotos 7.0 ou acima até 30 de junho?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Quantos terremotos 7.0 ou acima até 30 de junho?" is "8+" at 86%, meaning the market assigns a 86% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "7" at 10%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Quantos terremotos 7.0 ou acima até 30 de junho?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.