Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF indicate Chicago's highest temperature on April 4 clustering around 55–65°F, reflecting trader consensus in the closely matched leading outcomes amid typical early-spring variability. Historical normals from NWS Chicago show an average high of 54.4°F, but NOAA's spring outlook calls for above-normal temperatures in the Midwest due to a La Niña-to-neutral ENSO transition, elevating odds for mid-60s readings. Key differentiators include the position of an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes potentially capping warmth with clouds or a weak front, versus ridge amplification allowing more solar heating. Uncertainty persists with model spread; monitor afternoon forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office for refinements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Chicago on April 4?
Highest temperature in Chicago on April 4?
57°F or below 26%
58-59°F 21%
64-65°F 14%
70-71°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
57°F or below
26%
58-59°F
21%
60-61°F
11%
62-63°F
10%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
20%
68-69°F
9%
70-71°F
14%
72-73°F
12%
74-75°F
9%
76°F or higher
11%
57°F or below 26%
58-59°F 21%
64-65°F 14%
70-71°F 14%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
57°F or below
$6 Vol.
26%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
21%
60-61°F
$2 Vol.
11%
62-63°F
$2 Vol.
10%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
14%
66-67°F
$149 Vol.
20%
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
9%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
14%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
12%
74-75°F
$7 Vol.
9%
76°F or higher
$15 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF indicate Chicago's highest temperature on April 4 clustering around 55–65°F, reflecting trader consensus in the closely matched leading outcomes amid typical early-spring variability. Historical normals from NWS Chicago show an average high of 54.4°F, but NOAA's spring outlook calls for above-normal temperatures in the Midwest due to a La Niña-to-neutral ENSO transition, elevating odds for mid-60s readings. Key differentiators include the position of an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes potentially capping warmth with clouds or a weak front, versus ridge amplification allowing more solar heating. Uncertainty persists with model spread; monitor afternoon forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ET
Volume
$181Data de Término
Apr 4, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF indicate Chicago's highest temperature on April 4 clustering around 55–65°F, reflecting trader consensus in the closely matched leading outcomes amid typical early-spring variability. Historical normals from NWS Chicago show an average high of 54.4°F, but NOAA's spring outlook calls for above-normal temperatures in the Midwest due to a La Niña-to-neutral ENSO transition, elevating odds for mid-60s readings. Key differentiators include the position of an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes potentially capping warmth with clouds or a weak front, versus ridge amplification allowing more solar heating. Uncertainty persists with model spread; monitor afternoon forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office for refinements.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$181Data de Término
Apr 4, 2026Mercado Aberto
Mar 29, 2026, 4:52 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF indicate Chicago's highest temperature on April 4 clustering around 55–65°F, reflecting trader consensus in the closely matched leading outcomes amid typical early-spring variability. Historical normals from NWS Chicago show an average high of 54.4°F, but NOAA's spring outlook calls for above-normal temperatures in the Midwest due to a La Niña-to-neutral ENSO transition, elevating odds for mid-60s readings. Key differentiators include the position of an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes potentially capping warmth with clouds or a weak front, versus ridge amplification allowing more solar heating. Uncertainty persists with model spread; monitor afternoon forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office for refinements.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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