Trader consensus on Polymarket reveals deep uncertainty for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 9, with market-implied odds split evenly at 51% for 25°C or higher versus 15°C or below, diverging sharply from April climatological averages of 22–24°C per Israel Meteorological Service data. This bimodal positioning stems from conflicting signals in recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts four days out, where some members depict a building upper-level ridge and hot Red Sea trough advection enabling sharp warm-up under clear skies, while others sustain the current low-pressure trough—evident in the past 48 hours' cooler overcast conditions and light showers—potentially capping highs amid clouds and sea breezes. Key differentiators include synoptic evolution and coastal moderation; watch IMS bulletins and 12z model updates for resolution clarity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · AtualizadoHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 9?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 9?
15°C or below 24.6%
21°C 24%
19°C 23%
22°C 22%
NOVO
NOVO
9 abr 2026
15°C or below
25%
16°C
14%
17°C
21%
18°C
21%
19°C
23%
20°C
20%
21°C
24%
22°C
22%
23°C
18%
24°C
15%
25°C or higher
11%
15°C or below 24.6%
21°C 24%
19°C 23%
22°C 22%
NOVO
NOVO
9 abr 2026
15°C or below
$25 Vol.
25%
16°C
$0 Vol.
14%
17°C
$0 Vol.
21%
18°C
$1 Vol.
21%
19°C
$0 Vol.
23%
20°C
$0 Vol.
20%
21°C
$0 Vol.
24%
22°C
$0 Vol.
22%
23°C
$0 Vol.
18%
24°C
$0 Vol.
15%
25°C or higher
$0 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reveals deep uncertainty for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 9, with market-implied odds split evenly at 51% for 25°C or higher versus 15°C or below, diverging sharply from April climatological averages of 22–24°C per Israel Meteorological Service data. This bimodal positioning stems from conflicting signals in recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts four days out, where some members depict a building upper-level ridge and hot Red Sea trough advection enabling sharp warm-up under clear skies, while others sustain the current low-pressure trough—evident in the past 48 hours' cooler overcast conditions and light showers—potentially capping highs amid clouds and sea breezes. Key differentiators include synoptic evolution and coastal moderation; watch IMS bulletins and 12z model updates for resolution clarity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado Aberto: Apr 5, 2026, 12:10 AM ET
Volume
$6Data de Término
9 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 5, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reveals deep uncertainty for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 9, with market-implied odds split evenly at 51% for 25°C or higher versus 15°C or below, diverging sharply from April climatological averages of 22–24°C per Israel Meteorological Service data. This bimodal positioning stems from conflicting signals in recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts four days out, where some members depict a building upper-level ridge and hot Red Sea trough advection enabling sharp warm-up under clear skies, while others sustain the current low-pressure trough—evident in the past 48 hours' cooler overcast conditions and light showers—potentially capping highs amid clouds and sea breezes. Key differentiators include synoptic evolution and coastal moderation; watch IMS bulletins and 12z model updates for resolution clarity.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 9 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$6Data de Término
9 abr 2026Mercado Aberto
Apr 5, 2026, 12:10 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reveals deep uncertainty for Tel Aviv's highest temperature on April 9, with market-implied odds split evenly at 51% for 25°C or higher versus 15°C or below, diverging sharply from April climatological averages of 22–24°C per Israel Meteorological Service data. This bimodal positioning stems from conflicting signals in recent GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts four days out, where some members depict a building upper-level ridge and hot Red Sea trough advection enabling sharp warm-up under clear skies, while others sustain the current low-pressure trough—evident in the past 48 hours' cooler overcast conditions and light showers—potentially capping highs amid clouds and sea breezes. Key differentiators include synoptic evolution and coastal moderation; watch IMS bulletins and 12z model updates for resolution clarity.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket · Atualizado
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